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Win Probability Calculator

Rate your fit across 6 key factors. Get an instant win probability estimate and actionable advice — before you invest hours writing a bid.

Weight: 25%

Past contracts in this sector/domain

Weight: 15%

Available resources to deliver

Weight: 20%

Certifications, accreditations, DBS checks

Weight: 15%

Confidence your pricing will be competitive

Weight: 10%

Can you deliver within the stated timeline?

Weight: 15%

Something competitors can't easily match

How the Win Probability Calculator Works

Score six weighted factors — past experience, compliance readiness, pricing competitiveness, delivery capacity, differentiators, and deadline feasibility — to get a data-driven bid/no-bid recommendation. Add competitor adjustments to model head-to-head scenarios.

When to Use This Tool

  • Bid/no-bid gate meetings: Ground your go/no-go decision in a structured scoring framework instead of gut feel
  • Resource prioritisation: When multiple tenders land simultaneously, score each to focus your bid team on the highest-probability wins
  • Client reporting: Share probability breakdowns with stakeholders to set realistic expectations on pipeline conversion

Based on procurement research from APMP (Association of Proposal Management Professionals) best practices. Used by bid managers, business development teams, and consultancies to reduce wasted bid effort by up to 35%.

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